Calm Before the Storm: Canada’s Economic Outlook & Recession Risk with Dawn Desjardins
In this episode, host Marwa Abdou speaks with Dawn Desjardins, Chief Economist at Deloitte Canada, about the country's fragile economic outlook for 2025. Desjardins shares insights from Deloitte’s Calm Before the Storm report, which highlights falling interest rates, stable inflation, and household savings as economic supports — while new U.S. tariffs and slowing immigration policies introduce serious risks.
Desjardins warns that a potential 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian exports could cost the average Canadian over $2,000 annually, while GDP could shrink by 0.8% if Canada retaliates. “Consumer confidence has come down significantly,” she says, adding that businesses are delaying investments due to uncertainty. Labour shortages may ease with reduced immigration, but that could also dampen long-term growth. She also points to productivity issues, housing shortages, and geopolitical uncertainty as compounding pressures.
Despite the turbulence, Desjardins remains cautiously optimistic: “We anticipate this to be a sharp impact on the economy, but a relatively short-lived one.”
Resources:
BDL Business Conditions Terminal